Ernesto's
If you thought 2022 was eventful, wait for the countless political scalps that 2023 promises to claim! God have mercy on us! The writing was always on the wall – the script of a master strategist had already been written as far back as 2008 and 2019 only exposed it to all and sundry! Now that this is the year of the final countdown – we should all brace ourselves for the unexpected!
Let’s recap. Botswana, a beacon of peace and stability – by borrowed standards – has never known political persecution; we can pride ourselves as never having had any political prisoners, not even prisoners of conscience – although the latter is debatable!
Suddenly, the tables have turned. A former president – son of the country’s founding democratic president – has fled into exile with all his brothers and their families. In his own words, he is fleeing from political persecution.
On the other hand, the State is steadfast and relentless in his pursuit. A slew of court cases –some won, some lost – has ended in a dramatic issuance of a warrant of arrest for the self-exiled former president!
Of course this has infuriated his people – remember, the former president is not only a politician, but he’s also a Chief of BaNgwato. Reports suggest that a section of the tribe, allegedly instigated by the Chief’s political party, Botswana Patriotic Front - is fighting tooth and nail to materialise the Chief’s political ambitions using the traditional community gathering structure known as the Kgotla.
But the State will have none of this. Now a section of the tribe has joined forces with its exiled Chief and have vowed to fight to the bitter end. Meantime, the exiled former president has also vowed not to rest until regime change has been won in Botswana!
The political minefield.
Politically, the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) shivers at the prospect of a united opposition under the aegis of the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) pulling a major electoral upset akin to Zambia’s United Party for National Development (UPND) Alliance. There’s a glimmer of hope for the opposition – it has literally won all the post general elections by-elections at Council level. This has bolstered the opposition’s resolve, but it’s major undoing remains its historical curse of splitting on the Eve of elections.
And as we said in previous editions of this Column, the nation should brace for a three-horse race in the 2024 general elections – BDP against two opposition alliances!
Already the signs are clear that Botswana National Front’s newest splinter-party, Botswana Labour Party led by Revered Prince Dibeela will join forces with an alliance being fashioned by Botswana Congress Party (BCP) and Alliance for Progressives (AP).
Other opposition parties sitting on the margins and fringes will be watching keenly to see which Alliance or Coalition promises electoral victory for them before they can align or affiliate. But then, time is running out! It will be a tricky chess game, this guessing game!
What about the governance level?
Hopefully, our MPs and Councillors as well as their respective political parties and their followers will be smarter this year. Hopefully our electioneering will shy away from personal vilification and character assassination to focus on the bread and butter issues that affect people on a daily basis!
Should they do this, they may want to tackle the glaring disparities between the rich and poor – the widening gulf between citizens and expatriates in terms of wealth acquisition and job opportunities.
Corruption has become the norm in government, in fact it will appear that people join public service only to line their pockets and not to serve the public! This belief is reinforced, aided and abetted by a justice system that seems to reward corruption!
A case in point is the judgement in the corruption case of a former permanent secretary to the president who after conviction, got away with a fine! Many say this judgment has only added fuel to the raging fire that is state corruption.
Of-course the aftermaths of Covid-19 are evident – empty shelves in public hospitals’ pharmacies; high inflation; poor salaries; deteriorating public infrastructure and generally, a hostile social environment.
On the flipside, the ruling party has its bargaining chips – the Transitional National Development Plan (TNDP) which is a political masterstroke for the BDP to realise its 2019 Manifesto promises and then the Constitutional
Review process.
It remains to be seen what political clout the BDP and its president, Mokgweetsi Masisi hope to salvage from the Constitutional review recommendations. However, for any political strategist, the process presents an invitation to reinforce power – after all, the source of all power is the Constitution.
The final countdown
And as we go into 2024, you can be sure that this will be an exciting year. The public is urged to be vigilant. They should carefully assess these politicians on a set of standards conceived by the public themselves not the politicians.
For instance, does the community enjoy public amenities? Are the roads, power lines, water drainage system in my area functional? Does my Councillor or Member of Parliament pay tax? Have they declared their assets to a public register? Can I access this register to see if this is so?
If we do this and ask real life questions and temporarily forget about people’s sexual liaisons and sexual orientation, we may well be on our way to holding any party wielding the levers of state power to account!
But if we continue as if power belongs to the elected representatives, we will continue to be serfs, slaves and impoverished lot in our own land. We must rise up to claim back our land.
And finally, let me wish the families of former Minister, MP and High Commissioner to India Lesego Motsumi Godspeed as they mourn the loss of their mother, sister, and guardian. We also convey our heartfelt condolences to the entire BaLete people during this sad period.
The same condolences go to the family of the soldier that committed suicide in Mozambique. Being part of a contingent of SADC troops deployed in the treacherous Cao Delgado province, our soldier may have succumbed to psychological effects of war!
Above all else, may we implore our menfolk to stop the carnage that is crimes of passion! For God’s sake let’s restore the traditional disciplinary system of caning, whipping wrongdoers on their bareback.
I can assure you we need this, to restore the dignity of womenfolk and to ensure that children are brought up in safe environments at home and schools.
May God’s mercies lead us!
Let’s recap. Botswana, a beacon of peace and stability – by borrowed standards – has never known political persecution; we can pride ourselves as never having had any political prisoners, not even prisoners of conscience – although the latter is debatable!
Suddenly, the tables have turned. A former president – son of the country’s founding democratic president – has fled into exile with all his brothers and their families. In his own words, he is fleeing from political persecution.
On the other hand, the State is steadfast and relentless in his pursuit. A slew of court cases –some won, some lost – has ended in a dramatic issuance of a warrant of arrest for the self-exiled former president!
Of course this has infuriated his people – remember, the former president is not only a politician, but he’s also a Chief of BaNgwato. Reports suggest that a section of the tribe, allegedly instigated by the Chief’s political party, Botswana Patriotic Front - is fighting tooth and nail to materialise the Chief’s political ambitions using the traditional community gathering structure known as the Kgotla.
But the State will have none of this. Now a section of the tribe has joined forces with its exiled Chief and have vowed to fight to the bitter end. Meantime, the exiled former president has also vowed not to rest until regime change has been won in Botswana!
The political minefield.
Politically, the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) shivers at the prospect of a united opposition under the aegis of the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) pulling a major electoral upset akin to Zambia’s United Party for National Development (UPND) Alliance. There’s a glimmer of hope for the opposition – it has literally won all the post general elections by-elections at Council level. This has bolstered the opposition’s resolve, but it’s major undoing remains its historical curse of splitting on the Eve of elections.
And as we said in previous editions of this Column, the nation should brace for a three-horse race in the 2024 general elections – BDP against two opposition alliances!
Already the signs are clear that Botswana National Front’s newest splinter-party, Botswana Labour Party led by Revered Prince Dibeela will join forces with an alliance being fashioned by Botswana Congress Party (BCP) and Alliance for Progressives (AP).
Other opposition parties sitting on the margins and fringes will be watching keenly to see which Alliance or Coalition promises electoral victory for them before they can align or affiliate. But then, time is running out! It will be a tricky chess game, this guessing game!
What about the governance level?
Hopefully, our MPs and Councillors as well as their respective political parties and their followers will be smarter this year. Hopefully our electioneering will shy away from personal vilification and character assassination to focus on the bread and butter issues that affect people on a daily basis!
Should they do this, they may want to tackle the glaring disparities between the rich and poor – the widening gulf between citizens and expatriates in terms of wealth acquisition and job opportunities.
Corruption has become the norm in government, in fact it will appear that people join public service only to line their pockets and not to serve the public! This belief is reinforced, aided and abetted by a justice system that seems to reward corruption!
A case in point is the judgement in the corruption case of a former permanent secretary to the president who after conviction, got away with a fine! Many say this judgment has only added fuel to the raging fire that is state corruption.
Of-course the aftermaths of Covid-19 are evident – empty shelves in public hospitals’ pharmacies; high inflation; poor salaries; deteriorating public infrastructure and generally, a hostile social environment.
On the flipside, the ruling party has its bargaining chips – the Transitional National Development Plan (TNDP) which is a political masterstroke for the BDP to realise its 2019 Manifesto promises and then the Constitutional
Review process.
It remains to be seen what political clout the BDP and its president, Mokgweetsi Masisi hope to salvage from the Constitutional review recommendations. However, for any political strategist, the process presents an invitation to reinforce power – after all, the source of all power is the Constitution.
The final countdown
And as we go into 2024, you can be sure that this will be an exciting year. The public is urged to be vigilant. They should carefully assess these politicians on a set of standards conceived by the public themselves not the politicians.
For instance, does the community enjoy public amenities? Are the roads, power lines, water drainage system in my area functional? Does my Councillor or Member of Parliament pay tax? Have they declared their assets to a public register? Can I access this register to see if this is so?
If we do this and ask real life questions and temporarily forget about people’s sexual liaisons and sexual orientation, we may well be on our way to holding any party wielding the levers of state power to account!
But if we continue as if power belongs to the elected representatives, we will continue to be serfs, slaves and impoverished lot in our own land. We must rise up to claim back our land.
And finally, let me wish the families of former Minister, MP and High Commissioner to India Lesego Motsumi Godspeed as they mourn the loss of their mother, sister, and guardian. We also convey our heartfelt condolences to the entire BaLete people during this sad period.
The same condolences go to the family of the soldier that committed suicide in Mozambique. Being part of a contingent of SADC troops deployed in the treacherous Cao Delgado province, our soldier may have succumbed to psychological effects of war!
Above all else, may we implore our menfolk to stop the carnage that is crimes of passion! For God’s sake let’s restore the traditional disciplinary system of caning, whipping wrongdoers on their bareback.
I can assure you we need this, to restore the dignity of womenfolk and to ensure that children are brought up in safe environments at home and schools.
May God’s mercies lead us!
