Venson-Moitoi’s challenge for AUC Chair is a self-defeating enterprise

The inherent contradictions in Pelonomi Venson-Moitoi’s campaign to succeed Dr Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma as Chairperson of the African Union Commission dictates that I also do the unconventional and start with the conclusion.

From where I stand and with all variables considered, including consulting occult forces, it is safe to conclude that it would take a miracle for Venson-Moitoi to win Chairperson of the AU Commission. But having said that, I have been thoroughly cautioned that we live in an age of miracles, where it is possible for “Prophet Mboro” to easily walk into Heaven and take ‘selfies’ with God and ‘come back’ to sell them for exorbitant prices. Magic happens.

Thus, it would take Venson-Moitoi a miracle of ‘Prophet Mboro’s proportions to clinch that ever hotly-contested seat at the AU. Remember, it took South Africa an arm and a leg to ultimately get Dr Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma win against Jean Ping. Nevertheless, I wish her luck, lots of luck for she will need it in abundance. But before you call for revocation of my citizenship on accusations of being unpatriotic, let us be brave enough and take the elephant in the room by the horns. As far as facts are concerned, the elephant standing between Venson-Moitoi and victory at the AU is Botswana’s foreign policy posture and execution thereof. That is the nemesis. In all fairness, there is little or no credible counter-argument to the thesis that she is now a prisoner of their own design. This puts irreparable damage to Venson-Moitoi’s campaign and leaves it riddled with contradictions of hypocritical proportions.

Taking into consideration Botswana’s engagement or lack thereof with the AU at strategic level, it is hypocritical she now wants to run the secretariat. This is arrogance in any other word and leaves Venson-Motoi’s campaign looking like a self-defeating endeavour, at least for Sudan’s Omar Al Bashir. Despite calls for Botswana to align her foreign policy posture to present realities reaching high decibels, it is all falling into deaf ears.

The Khama regime remains unmoved and unbothered. The unfolding geo-strategic environment of multiple centres of power has no imperative effect on him to align foreign policy with national interests. Hence there has been demonstrable lack of correlation between Botswana’s foreign policy statements and national benefit. This is precisely because Botswana’s foreign policy posture, like all other instruments of national power, has become irredeemable victim of cult of the personality. Our foreign policy has become fluid and directed by individual perceptions - real or imagined. This phenomenon may go a long way to explain our continued lacklustre engagement and participation in the international arena. If there is no interest at strategic level to engage and interact with the international community, there is no way we can have active engagement at operational and tactical level even if there is will to do things differently. 

Frankly speaking, president Khama has no interest whatsoever in the African Union or any other international multilateral forums that can help Botswana project her tiny voice on various issues. Instead of interacting with his counterparts and cross-pollinate ideas and best practices, president Khama would rather go dance polka or ride quad-bikes. However, unashamedly, he would be the first to voice criticism against decisions taken at such forums while he deliberately missed an opportunity to have voiced his differing opinion. This policy of disengagement has become the ‘new normal’ and overarching. It is the same attitude we display towards the UN, Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), US-Africa Leaders’ Summit and other multilateral forums where critical policy decisions are taken.

It is our continued roof-top diplomacy that now puts Venson-Moitoi’s campaign between a rock and a hard place. Talking about inherent contradictions in Venson-Moitoi’s campaign, it is important to know how she is going to navigate through and balance her country’s position with that of the AU on the sensitive matter of International Criminal Court (ICC). Botswana’s position on this matter is well known and steadfast, while on the other hand Venson-Moitoi will have to defend AU’s position on President Omar Al Bashir and other African heads of states indicted by the same court.

How she intends to do it remains a mystery, but certainly she will have to defy either of the two but it cannot be the AU. In fact, if she wins, she will at one point have to directly engage with president Omar Al Bashir and where possible defend him. As of now, Venson-Moitoi’s glimmer of hope lies in that the Francophone vote will split to her advantage, but until that happens, she is certainly on a self-defeating endeavour.