JC results: shocking but accurate

It is surprising that the Junior Certificate Examination (JCE) results belatedly-released this past Tuesday have shocked the nation. Including the teachers! Truth is, the results are a true reflection of how Botswana’s children really performed in the 2012 examinations – perhaps even a more authentic measure of the abhorring quality input we place into the country’s education system.

The results’ analysis shows that students have failed compared to recent years, yet most probably, the 2012 candidates could have done better compared to those of the years past. The only thing that has changed and caused a stir is BEC’s grading system which this newspaper questioned last year after the release of the 2011 JCE results.

When those results were released on December 23 in 2011, parents and teachers celebrated what was deemed a miracle performance by students. Their performance had beaten that of the immediate previous years, yet these were students adversely affected by a strike that took teachers away from classrooms for over two months.

The 2011 quality pass rate was at 74.7 percent compared to the lower 74.6 percent of 2010. Now, suddenly, the quality pass rate is 40.7 percent and the nation is crying. Yes, it is a shocking plummet. Yet it provides what perhaps is the most accurate picture of the sharpness levels of our children in schools.

It may be a bitter pill to swallow for those affected, but at least parents can this year find solace in knowing that they are celebrating a truthful output of what was put in. It may also be an opportune time for teachers to sit down and thoroughly introspect. The results could actually be an indication that the true scope of delivery at schools has been hiding behind a grading system that always fooled everyone into thinking that our students are doing well.

For the current examination results under review, candidates had some set standards to reach in order for them to attain certain grades. If for instance, skills knowledge befitting a 90 percent mark was this year set for a candidate to be awarded MERIT, there was no way anybody scoring 88 percent could hope for a MERIT.

In the previous assessment - the norm-referenced grading system - even a child scoring 66 percent could be awarded MERIT if this was the highest mark attained for the particular examination. And then the ranking would be made artificially as the marks cascaded to the lowest, with a result of having students who scored 56 percent possibly attaining Grade A.

This is why last year, this newspaper argued that the nation was celebrating a lie when the national quality pass level was rated at 74.7 percent, and the response that immediately followed through letters to the editor suggested that there was jealousy towards the unbelievable brilliance of the said children. In the same vein, BEC officials came out in defence of the system they had been using, although they would later admit that the system had some cracks and had to be changed.

True to their promise, BEC has moved away from the old system, and now the chickens have come home to roost. The newly-introduced standards-based assessment now reveals that only 5 girls out of 38 385 candidates reached the standards set for everyone to obtain a MERIT. Under the old system in 2011, 67 out of 39374 candidates achieved a MERIT grade. It was 44 out of 40180 candidates in 2010 and another 44 out of 39444 in 2009.

Now the standards have changed, and the numbers have horribly gone down. For all the quality grades A, B and C, the numbers have plummeted by over 50%, with Grade Bs falling from 8950 for 2011 results, to 4722 for the results currently under review. In 2010 and 2009, the number of candidates who attained Grade B stood at 8825 and 8739 respectively.

For Grades C, the numbers stood at 19925 in 2009; 19902 in 2010 and 20494 in 2011. This time around, the numbers have fallen to 10320. It is the number of D-grades and beyond that has gone higher – a total of 22 751 this year compared to 10 074 in 2009, 10 085 in 2010 and 9 989 in 2011.

The situation now means that the ministry of education has astronomically lesser numbers to admit into senior secondary education than it was the case in recent years. In fact, if the education ministry were to customarily admit only students with MERIT to Grade C into Form 4, then almost all senior secondary schools would be under-enrolled by close to 40 percent.

Over the years, an average of 24 000 scholars were admitted into Form 4, and these were made by scholars with grades MERIT to C only. For instance, readily available statistics provided by the then education ministry’s spokesperson Nomsa Zuze show that in 2011, 24 240 students out of the 29 400 who attained Grade C or better were admitted for Form 4. 

This year, the number of students with Grades C or better stands at only 15 637, almost 10 000 lesser than the number that has been admitted through the years. It would thus be interesting to see if for the first time, the senior secondary schools will absorb students with Grade D. In fact, the ministry of education will certainly have to admit some students with Grade D into Form 4.

Anything less will be a catastrophe. Most of the learners in the Grade D bracket this year could have easily scored Grades C or even better under the previous system, allowing high schools to have the numbers that prevailed there over the years.

And, if this current assessment system is to prevail, then parents, teachers and their learners must prepare for another spell of bad results if no meaningful measures are put in place to improve the situation. Even under pressure, BEC should not revert to the norm-referenced system that has been fooling the nation.

Fact is, in terms of sharpness levels on the part of the scholars, nothing has changed. The children have not been doing well all these years. The issue of a changed curriculum for the current crop of junior secondary school students holds no water. The new curriculum was introduced in 2010, and over the past three years, it was this new syllabus that was used for instruction for the 2012 examinations.

The other argument that the teachers’ strike is to blame remains as baseless – otherwise the JC results of the strike year would not have been the best in years, and schools with more striking teachers would not have performed better. All forms of excuses can and will continue to be coined. It is the changed grading system that has exposed the true nature of the country’s frail education system that needs a comprehensive overhaul.

Revelations that the syllabus for some schools was only changed last year are unfortunate. Suggestions that some schools did not prepare scholars for the new grading system when they were consulted on the matter are indicative. At least now the nation has an appreciation of where we really are, and that lie is no more. It is doubtful that learners were adequately prepared for the demons that the standards-based assessment would uncover. What is not in doubt is that a lot has to be changed.

A complete overhaul of the education system is necessary, beginning with a change of guard in the ministry of education. At least.