Goodhope-Mabule offers UDC its first litmus test post 2014

The battle for Goodhope-Mabule constituency in a by-election to be held within the constitutional 90 days, poses a major test of character for the opposition Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC). The by-election comes after UDC Member of Parliament James Mathokgwane resigned recently under mysterious circumstances.

Mathokgwane has since been employed by Selibe Phikwe Economic Development Unit (SPEDU) which is a government-sponsored regional development strategy for Selibe-Phikwe and the surrounding villages. While the BDP and BCP will be selling their policies to the electorate from day one, the UDC is likely to spend most of its campaign time trying to convince the people of Goodhope-Mabule that it is still dependable and worthy of their votes despite the resignation of Mathokgwane only seven months after they voted him to parliament. Supporters and sympathisers of the UDC have been telling all and sundry that both Titus Kebuileng of Bokone and Mathokgwane of Goodhope-Mabule are not the first elected representatives to ‘abscond’ causing an unnecessary expense in a by-election. Kebuileng of the UDC resigned his council seat early this year following an ultimatum by the University of Botswana (UB), his employer, for him to either leave his employment with the institution or resign from council. In 2003 the Member of Parliament for Francistown East, Joyce Phumaphi, resigned her parliamentary seat for a job at the World Health Organisation (WHO). Four years later, Boyce Sebetlela and Obakeng Moumakwa, MPs for Palapye and Kgalagadi North respectively also resigned their seats in parliament for greener pastures.

While the other two were from the BDP, Moumakwa was a BNF MP. The BNF is an affiliate of the UDC. The outcome of the Kgalagadi North constituency by-election following Moumakwa’s resignation can hardly be a source of inspiration to the UDC either because the constituency, which the BNF had won by a slim margin in 2004, went back to the BDP in the by-election. By contrast, both the Francistown East and Palapye constituencies were BDP stronghold which the party easily retained at the by-election. The Goodhope-Mabule constituency on the other hand, is also a traditional BDP stronghold which the UDC won at the general election last year by a margin of only 717 votes. Of the 12 wards, 11 were won by the BDP with the UDC clinching only one of them. In comparing the 2003 and 2007 resignations on the one hand and the current one, the UDC may succeed only in as far as assuaging its own inevitable sense of guilt and embarrassment. Firstly, many of today’s voters, who are generally the youth, may not feel personally offended by the resignations of Phumaphi and Sebetlela that took place a decade or so ago.

For the UDC to harp on the 2003 and 2007 resignations in an attempt to implicate the BDP and protect its own reputation, the party may portray the BNF, its affiliate, as a repeat offender as far as ‘absconding’ by its elected representatives is concerned. First, it was Moumakwa, then Kebuileng and then Mathokgwane. There is no doubt that the BCP, riding on a moral high-ground, will want the voters to regard UDC representatives as quislings not fit for political office as they are a potential liability to the economy as they are likely to resign after being voted hence causing a by-election. University of Botswana political science lecturer, Professor Zibani Maundeni believes the resignation of Mathokgwane may hurt the party only if it tries to defend him. “It depends on how the party handles the issue. The party must distance itself from him. If the UDC shows disappointment with him, the voters will differentiate between the party and the individual,” said Prof Maundeni. Perhaps the UDC did not use Prof Maundeni’s approach because, a few weeks ago, it lost Bokone ward to the BCP in Mochudi.

Shockingly, not only did the UDC lose the by-election it came a distant third after the BCP and the BDP, in that order after shedding its support from 590 votes in 2014 to 271 in the by-election. The BDP and BCP had in 2014, been voted by 435 and 482 people respectively. This should come as a warning to the UDC. BCP supporters gleefully insist that the voters punished the UDC for Kebuileng’s disappearing act. After a sterling electoral performance at the general election last year where it amassed 20 seats from the total of 57, the UDC perhaps experienced its first setback when it failed to win Moshupa ward in a by-election early this year. The ward, whose by-election was the result of a tie between the BDP and BCP in the 2014 general election, was retained by the BCP which had won it in 2009. Considering the fact that, at the general election hardly three months earlier, the UDC had won unlikely constituencies such as Molepolole South, Gaborone Central and Goodhope-Mabule, many expected that the party would effortlessly consign the seemingly hapless BCP to the dustbin of history by elbowing it from the council seat. Not only did the BCP beat the UDC hands down, but Mogobagoba (BCP’s praise title) chagrined its detractors by increasing its popular vote in the ward.

At the four by-elections that have taken place after the general election; at Goodhope, Ngware, Moshupa and Bokone wards, the BCP has arguably proved that it is still ‘the party of choice’ by winning Moshupa and Bokone; the only two wards where the party fielded a candidate. The party out-performed itself when it dethroned the UDC from Bokone ward. There are fears within UDC circles that, at this rate, the imminent by-election at Goodhope-Mabule could prove to be the Waterloo of the UDC. Back in 1825, following a season of successful military escapades throughout Europe, Napoleon Bonaparte, a French military and political leader, was defeated at the sanguinary battle of Waterloo; a small town in present day Belgium. Captured and humiliated, the hitherto unstoppable military genius was then banished to the Island of St. Helena before he died six years later. It is not clear why the UDC seems to have lost its lustre. There have been complaints that, ever since they were elected, UDC representatives ceased both to be visible or audible in their constituencies and parliament. There have also been indications that not all was well within the UDC especially when the infightings of the Botswana Movement for Democracy (BMD) youth league went out of control.

It is also possible that the lack of involvement by BOFEPUSU, which campaigned for the UDC in the general election, has robbed the UDC of the necessary hype needed to excite voters. Besides the credibility deficit faced by UDC, the party, alongside the BCP has to contend with resource constraints. In the run-up to the 2014 general election in the Goodhope Mabule constituency, a total of 15, 874 people registered to vote. Of this number, 2344 did not vote. Ensuring that all the 13530 who voted do vote again, will require a lot of logistical imperatives with serious financial implications. Locating those who did not vote can also be an expensive exercise requiring money and a motivated campaign team. This is one constituency where the centrality of the candidate, especially for the UDC, cannot be overemphasised. “The calibre of the candidates for all the parties will probably count more than anything else,” opined Ndulamo Morima, a political observer.  Reportedly, the BDP has got a line-up of seven candidates ready to represent their party in the Goodhope-Mabule constituency. Among them are young attorneys and veteran former civil servants. On the other hand, the BCP is yet to decide whether to contest or not. Indications are that Kgosi Lotlamoreng of Barolong has agreed to be the UDC candidate. It is believed that, due to his status, his candidature will neutralise the credibility gap that was created by Mathokgwane’s resignation.

The historically-conscious bandy about the names of Bathoen Gasietsewe and Tawana Moremi to prove that no Paramount Chief has lost an election in his backyard. President Ian Khama and his brother Tshekedi Khama are also mentioned in this context for they won their constituencies effortlessly because they are of royal blood.  Unity is also of the essence. The possibility of primary election in the BDP could favour the opposition especially if the losers are not happy with the outcome like it happened at the general election last year. The BDP, BCP and some of the UDC affiliates will be going for their respective elective congresses in July. Because of the disputatious nature of elective congresses, the party that has better mechanisms to resolve differences will likely carry the day given that the Goodhope-Mabule by-election will take place just after the congresses. The BDP might take longer to start campaigning due to the fact that they are involved in campaigns for central committee positions. This campaign may spill into the constituency to the disadvantage of the party.  A lot is at stake for the UDC and a loss will certainly reduce it into a butt of political jokes. Should the party lose Goodhope-Mabule, those who always argued after the 2014 general election that the party’s impressive performance was nothing but a fluke will be vindicated.