Ukraine confident of military victory over Russia
Spurred by support from the United States and its NATO satellites, Ukraine is confident that it will inflict a strategic defeat on Russia in the battlefield, a prospect Russia’s foreign minister Sergey Lavrov has described as “extremely risky”
On March 31st, the Pretoria-based Ambassador of Ukraine to Botswana and SADC, Liubov Abravitova addressed Botswana Guardian team at Room 52, in the Central Business District (CBD) in Gaborone, the capital city of Botswana.
Abravitova’s confidence is borne from what she says are nominal gains against Russia’s “slow and long army” since September 2022 when they recaptured half of the occupied territories.
The envoy says that when Russia started to bomb Ukrainian ports and started taking the southern territories of Ukraine, they capitulated from their earlier position of peaceful engagement, and demand for withdrawal of Russian troops from the occupied territory and instead launched a counter-offensive.
“Since September we were able to get half of the occupied territories back and while we were taking them back, we have seen those massive graves, we have seen the torture Chambers and the children that were taken out of the places and sent to Russia. All these are proven by facts and independent observers,” she said.
As of today, territories of Ukraine temporarily occupied by Russia are pasts of Kharkiv, Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhzhia regions (oblasts) as well as since 2014, parts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and all territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea.
Buoyed by the recapture of occupied territories, Abravitova insists that when they launched the counteroffensive, they had already realised that “we can win militarily, we had proven that Russia’s military is not strong, it’s not a big army, it’s a slow army, it’s a long army! Because they are fighting with the numbers but not quality and qualifications”.
To date, the envoy, says more than 160, 000 Russian officers and soldiers have been killed in Ukraine since the war started last year February.
“When you ask me about the losses of Ukraine, it’s one Ukrainian to 10 Russians,” she said! Certainly, these figures, should they be proven correct, show without a shadow of doubt that Ukraine is marching to victory.
But on the flipside, Ambassador Abravitova laments over a Ukraine that is battered, beaten and littered with mines – a Ukraine whose infrastructure has been demolished, a country enduring the worst forms of atrocities and human rights violations!
“You don’t know the number of women, children, boys – infants who are raped by Russians – how we can even think about allowing them to go into sports”, she burst out uncontrollably when asked about boycotting Russia from international sports.
Actually, Abravitova must know better in this area because her Thesis for her Master’s Degree attained in Switzerland, Geneva Centre of Security Studies – Geneva University, was on ‘How Sports can reconcile societies after massive human rights violations’ and her case study was Rwanda.
For Abravitova, the challenge of Ukraine today “is not only that we are in an unprovoked war, we are (also) paying the prize for our independence, for our self-identity and right to exist”.
Nevertheless, they are demanding that there will be punishment, accountability of offenders and of executors of all these crimes – and she sees the first signal being the warrant of arrest against Russian President Vladimir Putin issued by The Hague-based International Criminal Court (ICC).
“Because that’s exactly where we already have the cases that are acknowledged by the world society. It has been proven that Russia is taking Ukrainian children, stealing them from the occupied territories and sending them to Russia – and this is genocide, this is basically how you are trying to eliminate a nation”!
Already, she says they have also lobbied for the establishment of a Special Tribunal for the Punishment of the Crime of Aggression against Ukraine at the level of the United Nations.
The ICC warrant of arrest against Putin - who arrived in South Africa this week Wednesday for the BRICS summit – has proved a monumental failure as countries that are signatories of the Rome Statute, tremble at the thought of enforcing it, especially since Russia is not a signatory of the Rome Statute.
Abravitova expressed gratitude for the military and technical support they receive not only from the European Union (EU) and NATO, but also from countries like South Korea and Australia including some of the Stan countries - Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
As for southern Africa (SADC) and especially South Africa, where she is based, the support is “fragmented”, a condition she blames on the people’s ignorance of history.
Contrary to popular belief, Abravitova says that Russia has usurped the legacy of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) and has claimed its legacy, including the support the Ukraine rendered to some of Africa’s liberation movements, particularly the African National Congress and South West People’s Liberation Organisation (SWAPO).
“When USSR collapsed, Russia took over all the heritage of the USSR starting from the seat of the United Nations Security Council they even never put their signature on any document in Security Council, they are occupying that place illegally and that is what we are questioning today. They took all the embassies, all the premises abroad and just changed the flag from USSR to Russia”!