STEEP FUEL HIKE LOOMS
Batswana might soon be digging deeper into their pockets as the country braces for what could be the steepest fuel price hike in its history.
Highly placed sources within the fuel industry have revealed that intense behind-the-scenes discussions are currently underway, with stakeholders locked in negotiations over a possible increase that could send shockwaves across the country.
It is alleged that petrol prices could jump by a staggering P4 to P5. If approved, this would push petrol from the current P15 to P20 per litre, while diesel is also expected to surge above P20 per litre.
Should this materialise, it would mark the highest fuel price increase Botswana has ever witnessed.
At the heart of the looming crisis is the escalating conflict in the Middle East, involving Israel, the United States, and Iran, a war that shows no signs of slowing down and is now severely disrupting global oil markets.
International reports early this week indicated that jet fuel prices have nearly doubled since the outbreak of the conflict.
The situation has been worsened by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical oil shipping route, triggering supply shortages in several countries.
The ripple effects are already being felt across the globe, with petroleum prices climbing rapidly.
Closer to home, neighbouring South Africa, is also feeling the pressure with price increases expected there in the coming days.
And with Botswana’s heavy reliance on fuel imports through South Africa, a significant fuel price increase there is likely to place pressure on domestic prices upward, even if adjustments are delayed in the short term.
This is because the government might decide to delay increases in the short term to protect consumers and manage inflation, but eventually adjust if global and regional prices stay high.
Responding to questions from this publication, Air Botswana acknowledged the mounting pressure caused by rising fuel costs but said it is working hard to shield customers from the worst effects.
“Fuel costs remain a significant component of airline operations. At this stage, our focus remains on managing costs internally while maintaining reliable operations and protecting the customer experience,” Head of PR, Communications and Marketing, Malebogo Sesinyi said.
She added that while the airline may be forced to consider adjustments if the situation persists, customers remain a top priority.
“Should fuel price pressures persist over a sustained period, the airline will assess appropriate adjustments where necessary. However, any decisions will always be taken with our customers in mind,” she said.
On whether the airline has grounded some of its flights, Sesinyi said Air Botswana is currently operating on a “lean operational schedule.”
This approach is not a direct response to recent fuel price developments, but rather part of “our broader efforts” to rebuild consistency and customer confidence.
Any adjustments to flight frequencies are made in line with demand and operational efficiency, she explained.
The airline is also strategically managing where it refuels, prioritising Botswana while occasionally refuelling in cities such as Cape Town, Harare, and Lusaka when necessary.
Globally, the situation is becoming increasingly dire.
In Asia, Vietnam has reportedly taken drastic measures, with its national carrier set to suspend operations on several routes starting April 1, grounding up to 23 flights per week in response to rising fuel costs.
Locally, the Botswana Energy Regulatory Authority (BERA) has already signalled uncertainty ahead.
In a statement issued on March 20, 2026, BERA indicated that while fuel supply remains stable for March, the outlook for April is uncertain.
The authority revealed that the country currently holds about 65 million litres of fuel stocks, which is enough to provide 20.8 days of national fuel cover. This includes 41.4 million litres of diesel and 23.7 million litres of petrol.
Additionally, importers have placed orders for approximately 20 million litres of petrol and 24 million litres of diesel.
“Although supply appears to be stable for March 2026, there’s, however, greater uncertainty and anxiety about the supply outlook going into April 2026, owing to escalating premiums as traders have now resorted to spot pricing.
The Authority is currently engaging with oil companies to see how best to deal with additional costs of importation within the current pricing structure,” BERA said.
BERA noted that Brent crude oil prices surged by 38 per cent between March 1 and March 18, 2026, driven by growing supply concerns and rising maritime transport costs linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Botswana’s vulnerability is worsened by its limited fuel storage capacity, as the country’s government strategic reserves can last only 15 days. This means that in the event of a total supply disruption, they would run out of fuel in less than a month.
Meanwhile, the potential fuel hike comes at a time when public transport operators have been anxiously awaiting April 1, when the government is expected to review fares for the 2026/27 financial year.
Bus Operators Chairperson Tiragalo Mponang confirmed this week that they have already engaged the government to push for the long-awaited adjustments.
“We are in communication with the ministry. Remember in December last year when we wanted to halt services, they pleaded that we wait for April, now April is next week. We are waiting to hear from them,” he said.
Back in December, operators had proposed modest increases of at least 2 thebe for long-distance travel and between P1 and P2 for kombis and taxis.
However, Mponang has since indicated that those figures are no longer realistic.
The new proposals are expected to be significantly higher, as operators have factored in a broader range of costs, including fuel prices, spare parts, and regulatory fees.
“That time, we were looking at only one variable. Now we have included all variables,” he said.
While he declined to disclose exact figures, indications are that operators are pushing for increases of no less than P10 for kombis and shared taxis.
This means that if both fuel and transport fare increases are approved at the beginning of April, Batswana could soon face higher costs at the pump and in public transport.
Adding to this is that an increase in fuel prices will soon trigger rises in other commodities such as food, electricity, and more.