Fuel security stable despite Boko’s crisis warning
Was President Advocate Duma Boko misled when he suggested at the weekend Botswana National Front (BNF) leadership forum in Francistown that the country faces a fuel supply crisis, or was he merely politicking?
In his speech, widely published electronically, Boko said “lefatshe le fa gotwe fuel security, le tshwanetse le nne le fuel ee kare tsayang kgwedi tse tharo go sena sepe sese tsenang. Mme ha re leng teng, re tsamaya ha kae betsho? 9 days. Ha go sa kake gata leokwane lepe fela, 9 days go raya gore dikoloi di eme tsotlhe, le tsa lona tota. Ke le bolela diemo tse gore re seka ra nna le ketsatsaego rothe gore re hakae. This is where we are”.
However, the country is not facing an imminent fuel shortage, despite recent public concern sparked by remarks suggesting the country has fuel supply to last only nine days.
Industry authorities say the national supply situation remains stable and that a fuller understanding of the fuel supply chain shows that stock levels are far from critical.
The debate began after comments attributed to President Boko suggested that Botswana had limited fuel cover, raising fears among consumers and businesses.
The remarks quickly triggered widespread discussion across the country, with some citizens rushing to enquire about fuel availability while others began considering panic buying.
Fuel sector stakeholders say the statement may have been based on incomplete or misunderstood information. They argue that those responsible for briefing the President may not have presented a comprehensive picture of the industry’s supply system.
According to fuel sector authorities, the issue is sensitive because fuel availability touches on national security and economic stability. Any suggestion of an impending shortage can create unnecessary panic among the public and disrupt normal market behaviour.
“Such matters require careful communication because they can easily trigger panic among consumers,” an industry source familiar with the situation said.
The statement also prompted responses from key officials responsible for the energy sector.
Chief Executive Officer of the Botswana Energy Regulatory Authority (BERA), Dr Never Tshabang, issued a public clarification explaining the country’s fuel stock position. The Ministers of Minerals and Energy, Bogolo Kenewendo, and the State President, Moeti Mohwasa, also added their voices.
Investigations by this publication reveal that Botswana currently has sufficient fuel stocks and is not facing a crisis in the near term.
Experts say determining national fuel security requires examining multiple layers of supply, storage and logistics rather than relying on a single figure.
The country’s fuel system includes two major types of reserves: strategic reserves and commercial stocks. Strategic reserves are government-owned fuel stocks that are managed on behalf of the state by Botswana Oil Limited (BOL). These reserves are designed primarily for emergencies or strategic national operations.
In the event of a severe supply disruption, the government can draw from these reserves to ensure essential services such as hospitals, security services and other critical operations continue functioning.
Because of their role, strategic reserves are not usually the first line of supply for the commercial market. However, Botswana Oil has in the past utilised portions of these reserves temporarily before replenishing them as part of routine stock management.
Industry experts note that fuel cannot remain indefinitely in storage tanks without circulation because quality must be maintained.
It is therefore possible that references to limited fuel cover may have been referring specifically to strategic storage levels rather than the full national supply picture.
In contrast, commercial fuel stocks are the supplies used daily by oil marketing companies that operate filling stations across the country. Botswana Oil Limited supplies these companies, including multinational brands such as Shell, BP and Engen.
Industry data shows that at the time of the President’s remarks, Botswana Oil was holding approximately 22 days of commercial fuel supply intended for distribution to the market.
This is the fuel that directly affects motorists and businesses because it is the stock that feeds into retail service stations. Authorities say this information is critical when assessing the country’s real fuel availability.
Beyond the central storage system, there are also significant fuel reserves held by major industrial consumers across Botswana. Large mining operations such as Jwaneng and Orapa maintain their own fuel storage facilities to support continuous operations.
For example, Jwaneng Mine has a storage capacity of up to three million litres of fuel. Based on Botswana’s estimated national consumption of about 3.1 million litres per day, such a reserve represents substantial operational cover for the mine.
Orapa Mine and the nearby power plant also maintain large storage facilities, with some tanks capable of holding around one million litres of fuel.
Additional storage exists within state-owned institutions and infrastructure operators. Botswana Railways, headquartered in Mahalapye, operates fuel storage tanks with a capacity of about one million litres.
Industry analysts say these reserves are rarely included in simplified calculations of national fuel cover days, yet they form an important part of the broader fuel ecosystem.
Botswana Oil Limited itself operates a large storage infrastructure, including tanks capable of holding up to 30 million litres of fuel in Francistown. Some multinational oil companies also maintain storage tanks in the same region. Experts argue that any assessment of national fuel security must take into account how much fuel is stored in these facilities and whether those stocks are available for distribution.
Another key factor often overlooked is fuel that is already in transit.
At any given time, numerous tanker trucks travel across Botswana’s road network, transporting fuel to depots and retail stations. Much of this fuel originates from supply terminals in South Africa, Mozambique and Namibia.
Once fuel has been purchased and loaded for transport, it effectively forms part of the country’s supply chain even though it has not yet reached storage facilities or retail outlets.
Similarly, additional fuel stocks may still be located at regional fuel terminals awaiting collection. These are volumes that Botswana-based companies have already secured through purchase agreements, which will be loaded onto trucks or trains for delivery.
Retail service stations across the country also maintain their own underground storage tanks. The fuel already available at these stations contributes to the total national supply available to consumers.
Industry specialists say that accurately determining Botswana’s fuel cover requires examining the entire supply chain from international terminals and transport logistics to depot storage and retail distribution.
“Stock cover cannot be determined by looking at a single tank or facility; you need a full line of sight from the point of purchase to the pump,” a fuel sector analyst clarified. Taken together, these factors show that Botswana’s fuel supply remains stable and far from the crisis scenario feared by some members of the public.
While officials acknowledge that supply chains must be carefully monitored, they emphasise that the current situation does not warrant panic buying or alarm.
Instead, they say the episode highlights the importance of clear communication and accurate information when dealing with sensitive national supply issues such as fuel availability.