Botswana heading for a hung parliament?

Botswana’s 2024 elections are shaping up to be highly-competitive, with no party expected to cross the critical number of 31 constituencies. If this comes to pass, this will be historic in the life of the republic.

It will be the first time since independence for the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) to register below the required threshold to govern. There are several factors that explain the high likelihood of a hung parliament. We will share our reflections on the fall of the BDP.

The performance of the BDP will be determined by voter turnout. A turnout of around 85 percent will see a significant drop in the fortunes of the BDP. While a voter turnout of below 75 percent will favour the ruling party. The outcome of the elections will also be determined by which party seems to address the pressing needs of the people. The main concern is economic challenges which include high levels of unemployment, growing inequality, corruption and rising cost of living.

The deteriorating state of the health system and education will also be in the forefront of voters as they cast their ballots. These factors will naturally be blamed on the ruling party. It is for this reason that we will focus more on analysing the implications for the ruling party.

We will also provide the strengths and weaknesses of other competitors and likely elections implications. The main question is whether the opposition can be trusted by the voter to deliver better than the BDP. While the opposition parties are likely to increase their support, none will reach the 31 mark.

We will make a case that 37 constituencies are almost decided, and that the remaining 24 will be hotly contested battlegrounds and intriguing to watch. The main battlegrounds will include Boteti/Nata area, Central district, Charleshill, Francistown, Gaborone, Kgatleng, Tati and the Mogoditshane/Gabane/Metsimotlhabe cluster of constituencies. These cluster of constituencies will determine the party that will dominate the governance space in the next five years.

We will conclude by providing estimates of national outcome assuming voter turnout of at least 80 percent. We foresee a need for a coalition government in the context of a hung parliament.

WHY THE BDP WILL NOT REACH 31 CONSTITUENCIES

The best case scenario show that BDP will get 21 seats, while the worst case points to 10 seats. The best case scenario will be achieved if the voter turnout is below 70 percent. Nevertheless, there are four main reasons why BDP will drop below 31 seats. These could be summarised as Khama Factors, Masisi Factors, BTV Factors and the Bulela Ditswe fiasco.

The return of former president Ian Khama just a month before elections has complicated things for the BDP. The former president has been the most vocal critic of his successor, Mokweetsi Masisi.

His return could influence voters who are dissatisfied with the current BDP leadership. Khama remains perhaps the single highest crowd puller in the country.

Apart from his strong base of loyalists from Serowe, he is able to attract attention throughout the country. His return to lead the Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF) is likely to cause more harm to BDP than any other party for several reasons. As a former BDP leader and also the son of the founding father of the party, he still has a number of supporters in the BDP. Another reason why he may hurt BDP is that, many people feel that he was mistreated by the ruling party and forced into self-exile. In addition, many BDP followers after six years under Masisi rule, feel Khama was a much better leader than they initially thought. The things that he was criticised for have shrunk compared to the Masisi leadership.

The Masisi factor however, might explain the biggest fall in the BDP political stock. There is general consensus that he has been the worst leader ever afforded the state house. The list of his deficiencies include his affinity to corruption, absence of integrity, dictatorship, nepotism, allergy to the truth, tribalism and unprecedented levels of greediness. While in 2019 he was considered the solution to national leadership crisis, in 2024 he is considered the root cause of all the socio-economic and political challenges the nation faces. He has morphed from being a national darling, to public enemy number one.

The other silent killer to BDP has been the Botswana Television. The public broadcasting of parliamentary sessions has been a double edged sword for the ruling party. While it can be credited for strengthening democracy, it has also been instrumental in exposing the ruling party. The live debates have meant that the BDP actions and decisions are under constant scrutiny. At the same time, this has enabled the opposition MPs to demonstrate their strengthens and alternative policies freely. The opposition block was much superior in debates than the BDP. In parliament the BDP lost most of the national debates that matter to Batswana and used their numbers to force decisions in their favour. This has certainly lost them numbers.

Lastly, the internal discord has been a significant issue, particularly stemming from their primary elections, commonly referred to as Bulela Ditswe, or as detractors would put it, Bulela Dilwe. These primaries were grossly mishandled and have caused major divisions within the party. A number of members who were vetted or lost in the primaries feel resentful and are struggling to participate in party activities.

Additionally, there have been reports of key figures within the BDP losing ground due to a lack of presence and engagement at the grassroots levels. Some of the decisions of the BDP have been so extreme that it has driven a number of members to run as independent or join the opposition parties. The implications are likely to undermine a BDP win. For instance, it is almost impossible for BDP to retain the constituency of Goodhope/Mmathethe after unfairly disqualifying a candidate who overwhelmingly won the primary elections.

Secured constituencies

There are 37 constituencies which are almost already secured by different parties, a week before elections. This means that 24 constituencies remain the main battle grounds that will determine the party that will have the most seats.

BDP stronghold constituencies.

BDP is expected to win at least eight constituencies convincingly. These are mainly constituencies south of Dibete. These are: Kanye East, Kanye West, Kgalagadi North, Kgatleng Central, Letlhakeng, Molepolole South, Moshupa-Manyana and Thamaga- Kumakwane. Beyond, Dibete, BDP is only assured of four seats.

The BDP president is expected to pull good numbers for his party in Moshupa from where he originates and other constituencies within 50 KM radius of Moshupa. Other constituencies will be highly

competed for.

BCP stronghold constituencies.

Botswana Congress Party (BCP) is expected to win 14 constituencies with no serious competition in Bobirwa, Chobe, Gamalete, Maun East, Maun North, Maun West, Mmadinare, Nkange, Ngami, Okavango East, Okavango West, Selebi-Phikwe East, Selebi-Phikwe West and Tswapong South. Most of the BCP constituencies are clustered around North West and Bobirwa/Phikwe areas.

There are two main explanations for these expected results, namely influence of past iconic leaders and smart political partnerships. In the North West, the BCP boasts of Kavindama as an iconic political figure. The mention of his name attracts a lot of excitement and a reminder that a vote contrary to his party amounts to betrayal. This is complimented by the smart partnership that BCP forged with Botswana Independence Party (BIP). This has generated significant dividend. The founder leader of BIP, Motsamai Mpho, was himself an iconic figure. The region was to be totally locked in with the emergence of Dumelang Saleshando in the North West political field. He is to the North West, what Khama is to Serowe.

Similarly, in Nkange, the BCP is riding on the legacy of the late Daniel Kwele, who was an influential political figure. This combined with smart partnership with his party, the Botswana Progressive Union, has made BCP undefeatable in Nkange. The same can be said of Selebi-Phikwe area, where Gilson Saleshando remains a household name in the former mining town and surrounding villages.

Other reasons why BCP is assured of the 14 seats include stable leadership, unified team and early starters to the campaign. This has assured their voters in their historical strongholds that they can continue to be trusted.

UDC stronghold Constituencies

The Umbrella for Democratic (UDC) is expected to win 10 constituencies easily, namely: Francistown South, Gantsi, Jwaneng- Mabutsane, Kgalagadi South, Lentsweletau-Lephephe, Lobatse, Molepolole North, Takatokwane, Tlokweng and Tonota. UDC, whose main contracting partner is the Botswana National Front, has historically been strong south of Dibete than in the North. Its longest serving leader, Dr Kenneth Koma was based in Gaborone. In addition, the chief of Ngwaketse, Kgosi Bathoen also influenced voting patterns in Ngwaketse and surrounding villages. Unfortunately, the foundation set by party founders has been shaken over the years by factionalism. The constant shedding of the BNF has resulted in shrinking of the original bases.

However, the party still enjoys historical loyalty and also association with the downtrodden. In addition, its partnership with Alliance for Progressives (AP) and Botswana Peoples Party (BPP) may afford it some constituencies in the north. The UDC brand also seems very resilient. The UDC would have been expected to have a slightly higher safe seats, but this has been undermined by unending factional wars leading to the formation of a breakaway party by the former vice president of the BNF and mass migration of national leaders to BPF and BDP.

Another challenge is mistrust in UDC leadership which has seen BPF retreating from cooperation. Similarly, the poor handling of primary elections has added to UDC challenges, including withdrawing candidates without consultation. There is also a growing concern that the UDC leader has dictatorial tendencies.

BPF Stronghold constituencies

The BPF is expected to see a boost in its fortunes with the return of its patron, Ian Khama. His presence is likely to reenergise the party and galvanise support, especially in the central district. The party will remain unchallenged in the three Serowe Constituencies. The Khama influence is too strong for even the ruling party. His treatment by his successor is likely to earn his party more seats beyond Serowe. What is certain is that BPF will get a minimum of three constituencies.

What will hamper BPF’s growth is lack of structures and clear vision of what they intend to achieve besides safeguarding the interests of their patron.

Independent Candidates and other parties

Currently, there is only one independent candidate likely to have a seat. Dr Edwin Dikoloti under the Wena Beula theme is expected to get the Goodhpe-Mmathethe constituency. He will be voted mostly by BDP supporters.

Other parties and independent candidates are not expected to have it easy. They will help to mostly reduce the BDP numbers as most of them are former BDP activists.

The Battleground constituencies

The biggest battle will be fought on 24 constituencies. There is no clear cut winner in any of them. These constituencies will determine the order of popularity among the three main parties, BCP, BDP and UDC. However, none of the parties will cross the 31 threshold. Below we provide likely scenarios.

Battle of the capital city – Gaborone

Gaborone has five constituencies which are all currently under BDP. On average there are five candidates per constituency. The frontrunners for the soul of the city are BCP and UDC. BDP will fall for the reasons advanced earlier. In addition, it has the weakest candidates. The BPF candidates will extract heavily from BDP. BCP has by far the strongest candidates and have a clear plan for the city dubbed the Gaborone Constituencies Master Plan. UDC has the second strongest team, followed by BPF. The likely outcome is that BCP will win three and UDC two constituencies.

Battle of the city of Francistown

This will be a three-horse race. Although UDC is historically not present in Francistown, its partnership with AP will afford it at least one constituency. We expect each of the big three to get a constituency each but UDC is likely to win Francistown South and Francistown West. The quality of candidates overall is poor across the parties in the city, with few exceptions.

The battle for Kgatleng

There are three constituencies in Kgatleng. The constituencies are expected to be highly contested. The BDP has traditionally held strong support in this cluster, but UDC and BCP are making significant inroads. This is likely to be another three-horse race. We expect each of the big three parties to win one constituency each. The BDP will certainly win the Kgatleng Central.

The battle for Boteti and Nata/Gweta

There are three constituencies, namely Boteti East, Boteti West and Nata/Gweta. All the three constituencies are currently under BDP, but the threat from opposition parties seems real. In Boteti East, the main competitor to BDP will be BCP. In Boteti West, the winner will be either BDP or UDC. The competition will be more intense in Nata/Gweta. It will be a three-horse race between BCP, BDP and BPF.

The Battle for Mogoditshane/Gabane/Metsimotlhabe

There are four constituencies. Each of the three major parties are likely to have at least win one seat. In Mogoditshane East, it will be mainly a battle between BCP and BDP. In Mogoditshane West, the competition will extend to UDC. The presence of BPF is likely to hurt the UDC. The Gabane-Mmankgodi will be a three-way race. The BDP will find it difficult to survive the onslaught of BCP and UDC. Lastly, in Mmopane-Metsimotlhabe, it will be a three-way contest, between the BDP, BCP and UDC. The latter may be hurt by the former BNF activist who has since joined BPF.

The battle to control central districts

There are four constituencies for control. These are Palapye, Tswapong North, Mahalapye East, and Mahalapye West. This will be three to four-way race. In Palapye, the leading parties are BCP and UDC. In Tswapong North, it will be a four-way race. Similarly, in both Mahalapye constituencies. The BPF may get two seats, while the BCP and UDC get one constituency each.

The battle for the soul of Charleshill

Charleshill will be an interesting constituency to watch. Historically, it was controlled by the BDP, but during the last elections, UDC took over. BNF took control of parliament, while BCP held control of most council seats. With the two parties now divorced, which one will have the support of the constituency? The competition will mainly be between BCP and UDC. BDP will come distant third.

Concluding note

In conclusion, our analysis is that no party will cross the 31 threshold. BDP is projected to shed most seats as it is directly associated with current economic collapse, corruption and poor service delivery. While, UDC is expected to gain some seats, it will not grow significantly due to poor leadership and factional wars.

BCP is likely to have better prospects on account of being more stable and being able to consolidate its historical base. It is also considered to be more responsive to the current needs of the electorate. Its main manifesto is centred on jobs and was developed through national consultations. Further, it’s the only party with a youth manifesto and compact for the capital centre. Furthermore, its primary elections were held a year before elections and were peaceful, giving the party sufficient time to sell their candidates.

From a triangulation from various sources of information, the best case scenario for BDP will be 21 constituencies, while the worst case will be 10 seats. BCP on the other hand, the best case scenario will be 26 constituencies, while its poor performance will deliver 14 seats. The UDC on the other hand will at most get 20 constituencies, and the least performance will deliver 10 constituencies. The BPF on the other hand will get at most six constituencies and the least will be three. Only one independent candidate (Dr. Dikoloti) will earn a seat.

Finally, our estimates for party performances is as follows: BDP will likely get 17 seats, BCP will likely get 22 seats, UDC may get 16 seats, BPF will most likely get five seats and the independent candidate will get one. With the projected outcome being a hung parliament, political parties should start preparing for serious talks.