How BDP will win elections with only 300 000 votes out of 1 million
Dear Reader
I hope this brief finds you all in optimal bill of health, ready for exercising your power to once again employ your never-so-humble servants on Wednesday of October 30. I pray you go all out to do the needful – vote! Gore mang, it’s up to you. Mme fela, I have news for you - the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) is set for another victory these coming elections. Ga ke ake! Out of my speculated 1 million people who will cast their vote on Wednesday, 700 000 will vote against the BDP, and the red machine will still emerge victorious in the end.
The BDP will once again be the party in power beyond October 30, and genuinely so. The 700 000 who would have voted against Mokgweetsi Masisi’s party will sit on the side-lines and falsely complain that the BDP has cheated the way to victory. They will once again cry that the elections were rigged. It will be the next hit song for the next five years until we go for elections again. Hee wee hee wee they stole elections; hee wee hee wee the elections were not free and fair; hee wee hee wee this is an illegitimate government. Nonsense! We like hiding the truth. We know already why the BDP is still going to win these elections despite popular opinion that the majority do not like the party. That is why we are currently employing all manner of mudslinging politics go ba tlhobosa ka batlhophi.
On numbers so far, the BDP is winning. In a ward of 300 voters, only 100 will vote a BDP Councillor; 200 will vote against him or her. In a constituency of 20 000 voters, only 6 000 will vote for the BDP and 14 000 will vote against the party. And when the winner is announced, it will be Domkrag leading the way. And we will run around looking for sympathy from outsiders, lying to them that the BDP has cheated. Ko kae? Ga re rate nnete.
All we are good at is making noise about rigging without tangible evidence - more to sanitize the embarrassment of our losses than gracefully accept defeat borne of our selfish choices. In 2019 the BDP also won elections – almost a landslide – when we had hyped everything against their favour. We were in denial about the real issues that saw the opposition once again fail to come to the party. We like hiding the truth and looking in the opposite direction of where the real problem lies. I need not remind you why the BDP won elections in 2019 – no rigging, unless you can bring me tangible proof to that effect. Not imagined rhetoric! For now, let’s address the greedy and self-serving elephant in the room.
How voters in this country still have hope in the leaders of our opposition parties still beats me. Take them one by one – Duma Boko. Dumelang Saleshando. Thuso Tiego. Ian Khama and Mephato Reatile – I am not sure who the leader of their party is. Biggie Butale. Gaontebale Mokgosi. Do you know that these are the very people who tomorrow will be leading the chorus of that hit song, ‘Rigging?’ These are the gentlemen who would want you to listen to them when they say elections were won unfairly. They will be blaming the BDP victory on everyone else except themselves. And we, the gullible with no independent minds, will be so religiously cheering them on while wrongfully jeering at the ruling party that would have done nothing wrong.
Guys, we need to face the truth and stop sugar-coating what truly is a stinking trend and pattern of selfishness by our leaders. Our opposition leaders have failed this country. Let me give you an example: I read from NewsDay, a Zim publication of October 21, that Khama was campaigning for Botswana Republican Party (BRP) leader Biggie Butale against a BDP candidate; gatwe a re ZANU PF will be involved in the Botswana elections. The story with the headline: “Khama warns Botswana of Zanu PF rigging,” suggests that Khama, a Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF) co-leader, is now trying to help Butale beat Mavange of the BDP. The same Khama who literally expelled Butale out of the BPF for what merely were selfish interests. Now that Butale o emetse fale, he is comfortable to assist him. What would have been better? A united BPF of Khama and Butale or the fragmented version of the party that gave birth to the BRP? What games are these people playing? And somehow we, the blind followers of these men, see nothing wrong with diketo tse ba di tshamekang ka matshelo a rona.
We see this pattern too, with the same BPF and the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC.) Once upon a time the BPF was a part of the UDC. Again out of selfish considerations, the two parties parted ways. Today we celebrate and ululate when Khama seems to campaign for a UDC candidate against the BDP. The same Khama who bolted out of the UDC! Which would have been better? A united UDC that includes the BPF or this pathetic arrangement where the BPF says they will support the UDC where they do not have a candidate? What was the purpose of their separation in the first place?
Similarly, Boko was recently praised for saying the UDC would back other opposition parties like the Botswana Congress Party (BCP) and BPF where the UDC is not contesting, or where the BCP and BPF stand better chances of winning. The same Boko who oversaw – unperturbed - the withdrawal of the BCP from the coalition. What would be better? A united UDC with BCP and BPF as a part of the coalition or this pointless talk we senselessly revel in? Waitse le rona batlhophi ga re itsee serious!
We really need to scrutinise these men more and ask ourselves serious questions about their true intentions regarding our country. Each one of them seems to want to lead; go ratwa maemo – lefatshe le tla ko morago. Gatwe Saleshando was wrong to bolt out of the UDC e bile ke ene a ratang power. What about Boko? If o ne a sa rate power, why couldn’t he yield to the genuine demands of the BCP and other parties within the coalition if the bigger picture was to uproot the BDP out of power? Banna ba ba batla re ba lebe sentle – gongwe ga ba farologane gope le Masisi or Khama; it’s just that ga ba ise ba tshware power. Even with our desire to try something else that is not BDP, these chaps do not inspire confidence with their self-serving tendencies. I am reminded of the late Sir Ketumile Masire words when asked if he didn't think the time had come to try another political party. He responded: 'Monna leso ga le lekelediwe, o tsamaela ruri.' Should we have confidence go lekeletsa borre ba, or ke jaaka re tlaa bo re ipolaile le go feta? They need to tell us why they deliberately look away from where the real problem is. I repeat – it is because of these men that the BDP will win power with just 300 000 votes out of one milion; they are the reason a BDP MP will win a seat with only 6 000 votes out of 20 000 who voted in a constituency.
This is because in that constituency, 5000 will vote for UDC, 4000 for BCP; 2500 for BPF, 1 500 for BMD; 700 for BRP and 300 for RAP. Add the numbers that will vote for the opposition parties and they give you 14000 – against 6 000 for the BDP. When the BDP is then declared the winner in the constituency, they cry rigging! What rigging? These opposition leaders are the ones rigging the elections in favour of the BDP. And this is the truth we don’t want to face. In a ward of 300 voters, a BDP councillor will walk away to the chambers after getting 100 votes; BCP getting 80; UDC 70; BPF 30; BRP 20 jalo jalo – re sa lebale mekoko! This is how the opposition rigs elections to favour the BDP. And the 70 percent I am giving to the opposition is perhaps even too generous. It might even be 40-60 or 45-55. But the overall outcome will be the same, as long as our opposition party leaders believe that their respective parties can win the elections on their own – which is a lie.
The BCP says they are sure of 31 constituencies. I ask: which ones for sure? Even the Gamalete one where I come from and has been their stronghold may not be easy this time. The UDC candidate has made his party fashionable in the constituency, and the more he eats into the BCP numbers, the more Domi ea go akga maoto – because maDomkrag le bone kana ba rata party ya bone despite its flaws. Just as others love their parties with their flaws as well? So it may be difficult for the UDC to eat from the BDP than will be the case ka BCP. All in all, I say when the results are counted and winners announced, don’t act shocked when the BDP wins. With makgamunyana a a opposition, chances of victory are leaning more towards the BDP, and any complaints against their victory would be disingenuous.
Sometimes I even feel that the BPF and UDC have already accepted the reality that the BDP will win, hence their strategy of fuelling violence and hyping dikgoberego even before the election results. The BCP on the other hand seems to genuinely believe – you sense the belief in their campaigns. They are focussed and discussing issues as opposed to the UDC and BPF who seem to have accepted the BDP will win, but will rather invest in making sure the BDP does not get to enjoy their genuine victory helped by vote splitting. All they do, hiding from the truth, is to pre-empt the rigging and cheating narrative so that when they lose to BDP, they say ‘WE TOLD YOU SO,’ – and when they win, they will say it’s because RE NE RE BEILE MADIBELATLHOPHO. Nnete ea baba. Re bolawa ke ba re ithayang re re re na le bone. Mme le gale let us hope I am wrong with everything I have said – that the opposition has already handed victory to the BDP. May the best candidates win.