BDP pursues elusive high-income dream
Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) has announced wide-ranging packages in its general election manifesto, for the upcoming elections, and pitched high ambitions to create an inclusive high income economy.
Statistics however, paints a gloomy picture on the ambitious dream to transition the local economy status from a middle income status.
This week, President Mokgweetsi Masisi launched the ruling party’s election manifesto, which acknowledges that to achieve the high income status, elevated level productivity, competitiveness, creation of decent jobs and building a knowledge based economy should be core to the economy. However, over the past months, researchers have already indicated that the high-income status dream is slowly becoming elusive for the country.
The National Planning Commission (NPC) in August highlighted that the country’s GDP has plunged over the years; raising alarm that the country may not reach the envisioned high-income status by 2036.
“We need to grow by six percent annually for us to reach the high-income status, therefore we need to step to the six percent GDP growth,” NPC Researcher, David Sefawe said recently at the Local Manufacturing Summit 2024.
Sefawe highlighted that statistics indicate that the country’s GDP growth for 2022 was at 4.2, as GDP growth drops. He highlighted that the nation needs to address GDP growth, high inequality within the economy and the upward spiralling unemployment, for it to become a high income economy.
Sefawe implored the nation to consider private sector led diversification of the economy, and to trim the economy from being wholly driven by the government, promote exports due to the small market. The NPC Researcher also called for the local economy to open up to foreigners to bring technical skills, while creating an enabling environment for investors.
In the manifesto under the theme: Changing Together, Building Prosperity, BDP says it will actively reform the planning process to fulfil the country’s planning vision of achieving high-income status and ensuring prosperity for all.
“Key sectors with high growth and export potential, such as manufacturing, agriculture, minerals, transport and logistics, tourism, sport, and the creative industry, will anchor our development trajectory.
“We will also invest in high-impact and high-return projects to support the growth of these sectors and our economy at large,” part of the manifesto reads.
In June, think-tanks at Bank of Botswana also warned that the country’s ambitious plan to reach high-income status by 2036 could be evasive, on the backdrop of GDP growth declining by more than six percent over the past 10 years from 12.1 percent in 2022 to 5.2 percent in 2023.
The central bank authorities said GDP growth rate needs to be 6.7 percent or above for the local economy to transition from the middle income status to high-income status. The authorities bemoaned that the shortcomings and uncertainties in the global economic activities could derail the plans to transition to a high-income one.
Director of Research and Financial Stability Department, Innocent Molalapata said the country’s GDP forecast rate is lower than the target for a high-income status.
Molalapata said the country needs to have its GDP pegged at 6.7 percent or above for the next 12 years, to reach the high-income status, moving the country’s GDP from P203 billion to P473 billion, which is more than double.
“However, the forecast growth rate is lower than the 6.7 percent. There is need for concerted efforts to accelerate traction of transformative initiative,” Molalapata said, highlighting that with GDP growth trajectory facing a lot of uncertainties, Botswana’s 2024 GDP growth could be lower than the 4.2 percent forecast by the country’s Ministry of Finance.
“The 4.2 percent is unlikely to be realised because of information already seen in 2024,” Molalapata said.
However, despite the gloomy picture, BDP says it will outline their comprehensive plan for a prosperous future, detailing how we will create jobs and wealth for Batswana.
“Together, we will build a stronger, more resilient economy that benefits everyone,” the BDP manifesto says.
On the other hand, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also pegged GDP growth forecast at 3.6 percent. BDP says it has a resolute commitment to uplifting lives.
The manifesto says the party envisions sustainable economic growth that translates into decent jobs and vibrant entrepreneurship opportunities.