Has Boko been played by De Beers?

Days after his emphatic electoral victory, President Duma Boko spoke highly of De Beers and made fantastical expressions of how the much-needed diamond revenue would soon be flowing back into government coffers. It was all ululations. If not all illusions. And if not all delusions. Whatever it was, it was. And whatever it was not, it was not. Those who called for cautious optimism were harshly labelled ‘apologists’ of the past regime. They were not just scorned, but scoffed. Even some sections of the media went deep into the trenches, fighting to manufacture public consent. The narrative was streamlined to portray and glorify De Beers as a responsible and rational actor, while vilifying the Masisi administration as not only irrational, but reckless and irresponsible.This was even overwritten by President Boko when he said, “The relationship with De Beers could have been damaged by the way the negotiations were handled.” The peddlers and propagandists went on steroids. The public consumed the propaganda to an overdose proportion. And waited with heavy expectations. They are still waiting. The reality is slowly, though bitterly, sinking. The government coffers are shrinking. Boko’s wonderland promises; wilting. Public trust; drifting. Time and tide; slowly turning against “my boy”. His ‘untrustworthiness’ has become the topic at funerals and beerhalls. Sooner or later, the ever-creative Mochudi choirs would be composing a song about one helpless pathological liar, who promised people paradise, only to throw them in the bottomless pit of hell.As the diamond revenues struggle to even trickle in, and our economic woes continue to mount by the day, one wonders what is really happening between Boko and De Beers. But Boko has certainly made his frustrations with De Beers loud and profound. He has been making all sorts of ‘threats’ against De Beers, including giving them the ‘infamous’ July 31 deadline to sell off a stockpile estimated at 10 million carats. But what is abundantly clear is that Boko’s gestures and overtures are part of a theatre that he is. He seeks to be a protagonist in this tragedy of a show. But like all tragedies, it is set to end in tears. But these theatrics come to nothing if Boko is not measured in language and actions. Currently, his language is all over the place. At one point, he is talking about Botswana may sell her diamonds directly to the market; another, he wants to buy a majority stake in De Beers by October. As to exactly what his game plan is, nobody knows, not even himself. However, what is clear is that his plan is based on confusion. What is not clear is, whether he is seeking to confuse De Beers, Batswana, or himself. But confusion can never leverage national interests. If at all De Beers had made any promises to him, he must take a cup of water and acknowledge that he has been played. And learn the very basic rule of realpolitik: no permanent friends, only permanent interests. Boko must further adjust to the reality that he carries no leverage against De Beers. At this present moment, the pendulum is swinging greatly to our disadvantage. And it is not by chance. It is by design. That is strategic cannibalism in its element.As things stand, it is a question of who needs this partnership most. With an economy on its knees, it has been rendered strategically obsolete. We may need to employ the rope-a-dope technique to fight ourselves out of this tight corner. But, if what is currently unfolding between De Beers and Angola is anything to go by, we must come to terms with the reality that we are increasingly becoming strategically irrelevant to De Beers. Probably, we are betting on the wrong horse. Just two months ago, De Beers and Endiama, Angola’s national diamond company, announced the discovery of a new kimberlite, which drew praise from Al Cook, CEO of De Beers, saying, “Angola is, in our view, one of the best places on the planet to look for diamonds, and this discovery reinforces our confidence.” But that is not where the punchline of this development lies. The punchline lies in Angola’s statement, following Boko’s recent interview with Bloomberg News, where he stated that his government was working with the Omani Investment Authority to buy a majority stake in De Beers. Immediately, Angola’s Minister for Mining and Oil, Diamantino Pedro, issued a statement which stood opposed to our bid and ‘proposing’ a ‘multinational’ kind of arrangement, “one in which no party would dominate.” These developments are not anything surprising, more so that Angola’s diamond sales have been on an upward trajectory, despite the so-called ‘global slump’. These are obvious strategic areas that our intelligence services prioritise because they present a clear existential threat.

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Has Boko been played by De Beers?